An altered SL map by 2100
By Dilrukshi Handunnetti
The current rate of atmospheric change is likely to leave a strong impact on Sri Lanka, with the island's northern tip and the nearby small islands likely to suffer severe inundation by 2100, a top scientist warns.
Senior Technical Advisor to the Ministry of Environment and Professor of Physics at the Open University of Sri Lanka (OUSL), Dr. W.A. Sumathipala insists that just like the Maldives, the identified parts of Sri Lanka are likely to be submerged by the turn of the century, and calls for immediate action to avert a future crisis.
Dr. Sumathipala emphasizes on the need for early warning and sound preparation, including sufficient investment in infrastructure, technology, awareness-building and the identification of relocation and livelihood options.
"Many believe it is the Maldives that will bear the brunt of rising sea levels. Sri Lanka too will bear significant impact in specific coastal areas and some of our coastal features will be altered by the turn of the century," he says.
He also says, scientists have been studying the possibility of a one-metre rise in sea levels by 2100, which in turn would result in multiple impacts. The temperature increase recorded in the past century calls for better preparedness with emphasis falling on human safety.
Increasing temperatures will expand any water body, thus causing the seas to expand. The immediate impacts would be inundation and coastal erosion.
Impact on Sri Lanka
As for Sri Lanka, the highest impacts will be in the coastal regions. "There will be loss of coastal landmass. The problem is, Sri Lanka is yet to wake up to the reality of climate change," notes Dr. Sumathipala, who provided leadership to the Climate Change Secretariat of Sri Lanka for years.
He even predicts future scenarios – the possibility of the present day Galle Road having to be shifted further inland and relocation of many a coastal population to safer locations inland. "This will be necessary to protect our coastal infrastructure, specially the railroads, from the vagaries of weather. By then, the marine drives and coastal railways will cease to be our reality, if we fail to introduce the kind of technology that countries dealing with frequent extreme weather events rely on. These scenarios call for sound adaptation methods."
Dr. Sumathipala adds that coastal villages in many parts of Sri Lanka, particularly the West and South will require coastal populations to be relocated. During high tide, the seas are likely to become extremely rough and there would be inundation of low-lying lands. Galle and Colombo harbours too will experience this and one scenario will be relocation of both, at least by a few kilometres, as physical features in the areas drastically alter.
As for the North and East, some physical features will face the imminent danger of serious alteration. The highest impact is likely to be suffered by the North and the low-lying areas of the peninsula, together with the surrounding islands are likely to be submerged.
"When calling for adaptation, we should seriously consider our vulnerability profile – the areas the industries, the infrastructure etcetera; and prioritize human safety at all times. This is the reason for the introduction of a climate adaptation strategy for Sri Lanka."
Drinking water shortage
While it is possible to experience extensive damage to coastal infrastructure, significant landless and property destruction in general, there can be a drinking water shortage due to increased salination, and rivers will be impacted by salt water intrusion.
However, he strongly feels that a stitch in time may indeed saves nine. "We should consider new construction models that can withstand extreme weather conditions and emulate these examples. While the vulnerable areas may increase in the future, people should be encouraged to invest in areas designated as safe for dwelling and less likely to suffer extreme impacts. Similarly, railroads and other coastal infrastructure should be shifted to safer areas before other catastrophic phenomena are experienced, wiping out most of the coastal infrastructure.
"It is about wise and futuristic decision-making. When roads and railways were built, they were not undertaken with climate change in mind. Now we need a survey and assessments on national infrastructure, which are likely to be affected and decide on measures to increase climate resilience. Some could be strengthened on retro-fitted while for others, it may be total relocation. We should now resort to action as the policies are already in place."
Category: Local
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